Emerging Markets Economist
We have made minor changes to growth expectations in emerging markets, but large downward revisions to inflation amid a more favourable oil price outlook.
Despite his controversial reputation, Jair Bolsanaro’s victory in the Brazilian election has been greeted with investor optimism. But the real test is yet to come – particularly regarding the crucial topic of pension reform.
With the impact of tariffs yet to show up in the data, and the looming threat of a property slowdown, the larger-than-expected slowdown in Chinese growth is a taste of things to come.
Yesterday’s softer US inflation reading has helped to settle stock markets but we still expect further rate increases and trade tensions to remain a concern.
Our emerging markets economist shares his views on Turkey, where the lira has fallen sharply and raised concerns about broader market contagion.