Video Webcast

60 seconds on the Global Economy

In this video Keith Wade shares his views on the global economy.


Keith Wade

Keith Wade

Chief Economist & Strategist

The global economy is very strong at the moment – we’re seeing very strong activity indicators coming through. We are seeing one or two signs that global growth may be beginning to peak in terms of the growth rate; the improvement in global trade which we saw in the summer appears to have levelled out and there are some signs that import growth is slowing down in places like China, so we’ll be watching that very carefully.

Overall, global activity remains good and the emerging markets are now showing a bit of strength that is coming through.
The main threat to global trade that we’ve seen recently is coming more from protectionism; Donald Trump has announced tariffs on washing machines and solar panels, and there are concerns that this could be the thin end of the wedge now that we will see tariffs increased elsewhere.

One of the scenarios we have is that protectionism does increase and that would cause quite a lot of stagflation in the world economy. So that is something we are very aware of.

In the meantime, the dollar has continued to weaken, giving American companies an advantage through a cheaper dollar. We think that the dollar overshot last year and has gradually been adjusting.

The new factor is where the ECB will take interest rates – clearly as the Eurozone has improved, people have begun to expect interest rate increases in the Eurozone, and that at the moment is the driving factor for the dollar.


Important Information
Any security(s) mentioned above is for illustrative purpose only, not a recommendation to invest or divest.
This document is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for investment advice or recommendation. Opinions stated are matters of judgment, which may change. Information herein is believed to be reliable, but Schroder Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
Investment involves risks. Past performance and any forecasts are not necessarily a guide to future or likely performance. You should remember that the value of investments can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of the overseas investments to rise or fall. For risks associated with investment in securities in emerging and less developed markets, please refer to the relevant offering document.
The information contained in this document is provided for information purpose only and does not constitute any solicitation and offering of investment products. Potential investors should be aware that such investments involve market risk and should be regarded as long-term investments.
Derivatives carry a high degree of risk and should only be considered by sophisticated investors.
This material, including the website, has not been reviewed by the SFC. Issued by Schroder Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited.